Who are our friends, and who are our enemies? This is a question well worth pondering. Recently, with the sharp fluctuations in the Japanese yen, the market has been filled with a multitude of opinions. Many believe that since the United States cannot harvest us, it has begun to target Japan.

However, does the United States really intend to harvest Japan in such a manner? Moreover, before the significant fluctuations in the yen, Asian currencies were still stable. Why would the substantial fluctuations in the yen trigger Asian currencies to initiate currency defense wars? Is the double act between the United States and Japan, which seemingly points to Asian countries, actually aimed at collapsing China's manufacturing industry once again?

Yen's Second Devaluation

The US dollar is a benefit for the United States, but it is a disaster for the world. Although the yen is Japan's currency, it is the foundation of Asian financing. Today, the devaluation of the yen brings not only fluctuations in Japan's economy but also shocks to the entire Asian region.

On May 22nd, the yen exchange rate once again approached the dangerous level of 156, close to the 34-year low it had previously set.

Who is the world's largest short seller? I think it is the United States, and more specifically, the Federal Reserve.

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It is important to understand that the United States' so-called adjustment of the economy through monetary policy is nothing more than creating instability, thereby completing the harvest.

For manufacturing countries, what is needed most is stability. Therefore, the US dollar is not so much providing convenience for global trade among nations as it is creating turmoil in the world.Recently, according to Wall Street news, an increasing number of traders are starting to bet more on the dollar's decline and switch to bullish on the euro, even seeing a surge in short positions on the dollar.

Some might say, isn't a bearish dollar a good thing?

Isn't that saying the end of the strong dollar cycle and the arrival of the weak dollar cycle?

However, it's important to understand that betting against the dollar also implies the end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle and the arrival of the interest rate cut cycle.

This can be verified by the recent sudden decision of the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of U.S. quantitative tightening from $60 billion to $25 billion. Raising interest rates is the process of the U.S. raising the butcher's knife, while lowering interest rates is when the sickle falls to the ground.

These short positions are not looking at the U.S. interest rate cuts, but at the U.S. sickle falling to the ground.

While expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts are on the rise, the yen, after two interventions, has once again experienced a slow decline, and is now around 156.

At the same time when the yen fell to around 156, the won is also rapidly depreciating, not far from its lowest point of around 1400, and even more dangerous is the Vietnamese dong, which has been hovering around its lowest point of 25,447 for a long time.

All these indicate one point, that is, the U.S. interest rate cuts are the beginning of the harvest.Moreover, we all know that the United States' interest rate hike cycle began in 2022, while the Bank of Japan's shift occurred in March-April this year. Why did the United States leave such a long period?

In fact, what the United States really wants is that although the United States has lowered interest rates, the US dollar has not experienced a large-scale devaluation, and the Japanese yen, which supports the US dollar, continues to depreciate. Only in this way can the United States, which is flooding the market with money, reap more assets.

It is also important to understand that the depreciation of the currencies of Japan and South Korea is not accidental, but inevitable. This is because the largest investor in Southeast Asia is not the United States, but Japan and South Korea. It can be said that Southeast Asia was once Japan's backyard, and now the United States needs Japan to step in to continue reaping.

However, reaping Southeast Asia is just a superficial approach, and behind it, the target is directed at China, and it is China's manufacturing industry. It can be said that a siege against China is gradually emerging.

The United States and Japan join hands to subvert Asia

A prosperous Asia does not meet the expectations of the United States, nor does it meet the expectations of Japan. Moreover, it is not the first time that the United States and Japan have joined hands to subvert Asia, and they have done it once before. This time is just a repetition of the old story.

Today's historical status of Japan is not due to how strong Japan was or how wealthy Japan was, but because Japan surrendered to the West and obtained today's status. At the same time, it is because of Japan's status in the Western system that it has obtained today's wealth.

It can be said that without China, there would be no existence of Japan, and the prosperity of China today also makes Japan's status precarious.After all, Japan is a pawn arranged by the Western powers of Europe and America in Asia, and even more so, a bridgehead for Europe and America to take and demand in Asia at will.

Once, Japan used the Southeast Asian market to gradually stabilize its own bubble crisis, but in '97, Japan turned around and sold out Southeast Asia, allowing the United States to harvest extensively in countries like Thailand. In the end, the wealth accumulated by Southeast Asia for nearly twenty years was all plundered by the United States. It can be said that all of this was the dark hand of the United States and Japan.

And today, the United States' interest rate hikes and Japan's turn are just a repeat of the old story, and the only variable is China.

It is important to know that when the Vietnamese dong plummeted, Vietnam once sought help from Japan, hoping that Japan would provide low-interest loans. The chip Vietnam put on the table was the construction rights for the North-South railway, but the result was to return empty-handed.

In the end, we all saw that Vietnam chose to go north to discuss cooperation with us, especially hoping that we would invest in construction. After all, this would attract a large amount of overseas investment for Vietnam, thereby stabilizing the devaluation of the exchange rate and the outflow of capital.

Moreover, the purpose of the United States and Japan's harvest in Southeast Asia this time is not so simple, because the United States and Japan see that our largest trading partner is none other than ASEAN.

ASEAN accounts for nearly 15% of our imports and exports. As long as ASEAN is pulled out, our imports and exports will inevitably collapse.

At present, the insufficient social financing expectation indicates that consumption, one of the three major engines, is also not smooth, and we can also see that fixed investment is even more unsatisfactory, leaving only foreign trade.

As long as foreign trade is broken, and then financial attacks are used, there will inevitably be a situation where bad debts in the manufacturing industry soar on a large scale.In conjunction with the recent U.S. Section 301 tariffs and the semiconductor alliance barriers, it can be said that the United States is trying to completely block our way out!

For us, it is necessary to stabilize ourselves while also preserving ASEAN. Only in this way can our foreign trade be guaranteed, and our manufacturing and exchange rates can be stabilized.

As for the joint attack by the United States and Japan, it can only be said that it seems to be perfectly coordinated, but the United States and Japan are not of one mind. After all, Japan knows that no matter whether the harvest is successful or not, it is the price. If Japan wins, it drinks soup; if it loses, then Japan is the price. Therefore, in this game, as long as we stabilize, the United States and Japan cannot stir up much wind and waves.