It can truly be said that fortune rarely comes in pairs, while misfortunes often occur in succession! One might have thought that the United States facing the constraints of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict was the worst of it, but unexpectedly, even its most adept financial sickle seems to be slipping. First, the U.S. national debt ratio soared, and now the first quarter GDP has been revised down to 1.3%. From 5.2% to 1.3%, the United States only took a mere half a year, and it seems that before it can reap its own harvest, it is already on the verge of collapse. Is the United States' harvest this time destined to end in failure?

The GDP cliff-like decline

The dollar tide is the United States' last weapon of intimidation, yet before the interest rate hikes have knocked out its opponents, the United States itself has faced a cliff-like decline in GDP. Is the United States about to relive the story of 2008?

Recently, according to relevant media reports, the U.S. authorities have released the economic data for the first quarter, and this time the data released has been revised down compared to the previous time, directly lowering by 0.3 percentage points, down to around 1.3%. It can be said that this is one of the worst data points for the United States in the past two years.

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It is important to note that in the current context of U.S.-China competition, whoever has better economic data represents a greater chance of winning, and whoever cannot hold on may miss the opportunity in the wave of the United States' harvest.

In addition to the GDP revision, even the Federal Reserve seems to be struggling. Since last year, the Federal Reserve has suffered various losses, with a loss amount of around 80 billion in 2023 alone. And this year, with the United States maintaining high interest rates, the losses will only be more exaggerated.

The decrease in GDP implies a bleak economic outlook for the United States. For the United States, the revision of GDP data may be the worst thing, because although the current U.S. CPI data has come down, it still remains around 3.4%, while the economic growth rate has dropped to 1.3%. This inevitably raises doubts about whether the United States is entering a state of economic stagnation.

Moreover, on a micro level, the American people are also on the verge of collapse. Recently, officials from the Federal Reserve have indicated that U.S. consumer debt is rapidly soaring. This means that the money the United States distributed during the pandemic has now been depleted, and what follows will be a widespread surge in debt.Moreover, in September last year, the excess savings of American residents had already dropped from $2.1 trillion in August 2021 to around $40 billion, and by March of this year, this figure had turned from positive to negative, reaching around -$72 billion.

This means that American citizens are now drawing on the future to sustain the U.S. economy.

Furthermore, in the upcoming June, the U.S. will also have nearly trillion in short-term Treasury bonds maturing, which means that the U.S. will need to replace low-interest Treasury bonds with high-interest ones. This will only increase fiscal pressure for the U.S., after all, U.S. Treasury bonds are not selling well now.

All of this indicates that the U.S.'s harvest this time may be thwarted.

The great recession in the U.S. is a foregone conclusion.

Today, the U.S. exports not only the dollar but also inflation. When the inflation exported by the U.S. cannot overwhelm the inflation exported by China, the U.S.'s defeat is already doomed.

We all know that the U.S. says it will use interest rate hikes to suppress inflation, but inflation is manipulated by the U.S. authorities. Raising interest rates to suppress inflation is even more of a joke because the U.S. is constantly raising tariffs. Raising by 25% is not enough, and recently it has been raised to around 100%.

It should be known that China is the world's largest industrial product producer. Can raising tariffs on China still reduce inflation? Therefore, the essence of the U.S. is to use the dollar tide to collapse developing countries, especially manufacturing countries.

So it will appear that the U.S. first floods the market to raise inflation, then quickly withdraws liquidity, so that manufacturing countries cannot quickly transform, resulting in a sharp drop in demand, a rapid increase in financing costs, and then a debt crisis, and finally the U.S. completes the harvest.However, the current situation is that although developing countries are facing a contraction in the US market, the Chinese market still exists, and our economy has been maintaining around 5%, which means that the US cannot explode other countries.

The downward revision of US economic data and the surge in US household debt are both indicating that the US economy may be about to experience a hard landing.

In the process of reducing inflation, instead of exploding deflationary countries, it is gradually entering a stagflationary environment. There are only two paths in front of the US, either an economic crisis or a large-scale monetary easing.

Both paths are no return for the US, but the economic downturn is helping the US choose the first path, so the time left for the US is not much.

And now the US can be said to be troubled both internally and externally, while for us, it is the best time to go out, because the economic vacuum caused by the US is not something we can feel, but the world, but our economic scale and volume allow us to cope, and we also have more energy to intercept.

In the current game between China and the US, we should play a greater role in stabilizing the economy, and we should also increase the intensity for the US. Only in this way will the US make greater concessions, and our economy will usher in faster growth and adjustment.