If once doesn't work, then twice; if twice doesn't work, then thrice. It was initially thought that with the easing of inflation data, the inflation crisis would be resolved, and the United States would officially enter the track of a rate-cutting cycle. However, it was unexpected that while the world was cutting rates, the United States experienced another reversal, not only refraining from cutting rates but also reducing the number of rate cuts from three to one.

While the United States maintains high interest rates, the Japanese yen exchange rate has once again plummeted, breaking through the 158 mark and being just a step away from its former low point. The last time the United States' harvest in Asia failed, is the Federal Reserve ready to make a comeback? Does the sharp decline of the yen imply that a new round of Asian currency defense war has begun again?

The yen collapses again, and Biden makes a comeback

Japan is not only an ally of the United States but also a pawn placed by the United States in Asia, and it is also a pawn to trigger the Asian financial crisis. The last sharp decline in the yen led to a currency defense war among Asian countries, and now the yen is collapsing again, is the United States' harvest coming again?

Recently, according to relevant media reports, the Bank of Japan finally made a decision, which is that the central bank will remain on the sidelines, neither raising nor lowering interest rates, and still maintaining Japan's interest rates around 0%-0.1% unchanged.

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Compared with Europe's actions, Japan has maintained the same rhythm as the United States. Because just as the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, Powell has already stood up and said that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates, and the interest rate will remain unchanged between 5.25%-5.5%, and even said that this year's rate cuts may only be one.

On one side is Europe's rate cuts, and on the other side is the Federal Reserve's unchanged stance. As soon as the Bank of Japan announced the news, the yen plummeted, breaking through the 157 and 158 marks, and reaching a position of about 158.15. This position can be said to be quite dangerous.

At the same time as the sharp decline of the yen, the US dollar index has also soared, reaching a recent high. This rise and fall are enough to see the problem, and we all know that the last sharp decline of the yen led to a series of sharp declines in Asian currencies. The Vietnamese dong and Indian rupee even reached historical lows, and even the South Korean won approached the low point reached during the pandemic.Countries have even mobilized gold to launch an Asian currency defense war. Not long after, such a scene reappeared before us. That is, the Japanese yen has once again reached the brink of collapse, while the US dollar has once again welcomed appreciation.

We all know that the yen is a shadow currency of the US dollar planted in Asia, and it can also be seen as a branch of the Federal Reserve in Asia. This branch, after decades of development, has long penetrated into every aspect of Southeast Asia and other Asian countries.

Now that the yen is falling, it will inevitably lead to a rapid decline in the currencies of various Asian countries, as both the Thai baht and the Indonesian rupiah have pegged their currencies to a basket of currencies including the yen.

Moreover, it should be a neutral event that the Bank of Japan neither raises nor lowers interest rates, after all, the Federal Reserve's interest rates have not changed, which means that the interest rate differential between the two countries has not widened, but the yen still fell.

This indicates that the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. It is important to note that the global market is now in a rate-cutting cycle, yet the market is biased towards Japan raising interest rates, which indicates that all investors do not look favorably on Japan, after all, raising interest rates is a task arranged by the United States for Japan.

The purpose is to increase the financing costs of Asian countries.

Moreover, according to recent data on Japan's foreign exchange reserves, compared to April, Japan's foreign exchange reserves have decreased by about $47.4 billion, and the bonds and other assets held have fallen by about $50 billion. That is to say, the last time Japan drove the short position from 160 to around 155, Japan spent nearly $60 billion, and these were basically obtained from Japan's sale of US debt.

Now, the yen has once again reached a low point and lingered, and has even broken through two key positions at once. Does Japan dare to use US dollars and sell US debt to save the yen? I think it is possible, but the probability is not very high.

Judging from the recent statements and actions of the Federal Reserve and the United States, the United States may launch a new financial shock again. After all, at this point in time, the Federal Reserve should gradually become more dovish, but it has gradually become more hawkish. Whether it is the statement or the dot plot announced at the Federal Reserve meeting, it indicates one point, that is, the Federal Reserve will not give up until it achieves its goal.Is the Asian Currency Crisis Reemerging?

It is the dollar that makes and breaks. Today, the Federal Reserve's performance does not seem to be about managing expectations, but rather more like a last-ditch effort. For the current United States, it is better to fight to the death than to retreat and weave a net, as there is not much room to retreat.

The Earth is vast enough to accommodate both China and the United States, but regions are small and cannot accommodate the insatiable greed of the United States. Today, the United States' debt scale has reached about $34.6 trillion, and this is just the scale of national debt, while its total debt scale has long broken through the hundred billion mark.

Moreover, the recent actions of the United States are all indicating one point, that is, the United States wants to complete the harvest as soon as possible. Starting with interest rate hikes, the United States has harvested the European Union by cutting off Europe's energy channels, and now the United States is even more manipulating the so-called overcapacity to provoke Sino-European trade confrontation, thereby cutting off Europe's consumer market again and harvesting Europe once more.

At the same time, it is more about blocking our influence in Asia, and ASEAN is the target of the United States. Because our largest trading partner is now ASEAN, and ASEAN's trade volume has accounted for nearly 15% of our import and export trade, which is a market that Japan and South Korea have cultivated for many years. Would the United States not harvest it and leave it to China?

Moreover, by detonating Japan and shaking Southeast Asia, and then using Southeast Asia to completely pull down our foreign trade, the United States can ultimately indirectly complete the dollar harvest. After all, the United States has now seen that it is basically impossible to harvest China through the dollar.

Moreover, Europe has already cut interest rates, and if the United States does not act quickly, it will not even have the last chance. Now, allies are taking the lead in protecting the market and picking peaches, while the United States is still raising interest rates to detonate the market. In this situation, it can only be said that the United States is helping other countries to pick chestnuts out of the fire.

Recently, there has been a lot of unfavorable news for the United States, such as the financial defection of the European Union, the continuous actions of the Asia-Pacific region, and even news that Saudi Arabia and the United States have broken off cooperation. Now, even if the United States is tough, the data of the United States is constantly fighting.

It can be said that the hope is not great, so for the United States, the only hope is to retreat, and before this retreat, there will inevitably be a wave of harvesting and plundering, after all, it cannot be that the United States' debt bomb explodes in its own hands.

Therefore, for us, it is necessary to prevent the United States from making a comeback, and more importantly, to prevent the United States from being desperate. At the same time, while stabilizing ourselves, we must also stabilize our partners, after all, we cannot go far alone, as it takes many hands to make a big fire.