The eldest and second siblings fight, but the third is on the verge of collapse. Claimed as a paragon of democracy and seen as an alternative to China, India has carried too many hopes from the West. It was thought that by leveraging the US-China rivalry, India could reap a significant amount of benefits. It could become a bridgehead for the US's rebalancing in the Asia-Pacific to gain American advantages, while also obtaining the dividends of China's efforts to balance the US.

India foresaw the beginning but did not guess the end. It reaped benefits from both ends, with its economy growing by 7.8% in the first quarter, leading by a significant margin. However, the money earned ended up in America's pocket. While the economy surged ahead, the stock market plummeted, and a triple whammy of stock, bond, and currency markets occurred. Is the US already迫不及待？Is India to become a sacrificial lamb for the US?

India's Stock, Bond, and Currency Markets Hit Hard

A tree that towers above the forest will always face strong winds. It was expected that India's rapid economic growth would continue for a long time, but unexpectedly, the economy faced a triple whammy of stock, bond, and currency market turmoil as soon as it picked up speed. Is India following in the footsteps of the Latin American economic crisis, becoming a pawn in the development of the US economy?

We watched as they built high-rise buildings and entertained guests, but what we didn't expect was that before the US-China rivalry could determine a winner, India was the first to crack.

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According to relevant media reports, India's financial sector suddenly experienced a flash crash, and the stock market once plummeted by nearly 8%. In addition to the stock market crash, India's bond and currency markets also experienced significant fluctuations. The rupee fell to around 83.5, and the recent low for the Indian rupee was 83.74. This means that the rupee is just a step away from breaking its low.

India's ten-year government bonds also jumped by about 10 basis points in an instant, reaching the 7% threshold, which means that India's financing costs have now reached 7%. This cost is comparable to that of the current US.

All these data indicate one thing: India's financial markets are in turmoil.Moreover, the Indian market has been facing various issues before. It may seem that India's GDP grew by 7.8% in the first quarter, which can be said to exceed the economic growth rate of most countries. However, India's economic growth is very unreasonable.

The most important point is that as a major world population country, India is now in the demographic dividend period. However, India has always experienced a trade deficit. That is to say, the demographic dividend in India is not only not a driving force for the economy, but also has more side effects.

In addition to the trade deficit, the Indian rupee has been unstable recently. In the recent depreciation of emerging countries' currencies, the basic range is about 8.5%. Even Japan, which was shorted, is about 10%, but India can reach about 15%, and it is still accelerating the decline.

With the depreciation of the rupee, Adani Ports, a company of Indian tycoon Adani, once fell by 20%, and the State Bank of India fell by nearly 15%. It can be said that the Indian financial market has been bloodied, which is not an exaggeration.

The reasons for all this, in addition to the increasing uncertainty of the Indian general election, are the harvest of American capital taking this opportunity.

It is important to know that the market value of the Indian stock market has broken through 4 trillion US dollars today. Before that, when the Nikkei index soared, there were various news reports that funds would move from Japan to India. We all know what happened later, that is, both the Nikkei and the Japanese exchange rate were shorted, and there was a sharp decline.

Today, this scene is being played again in India. Many people may say that this may just be an interlude, and everything will come back with the stability of the Indian general election. But is the reality really so?

It is important to know that today, India's foreign debt scale is far greater than India's foreign exchange reserves. Moreover, the debt of the Indian authorities alone accounts for nearly 78% of the foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, we should not forget that India is in deficit, that is to say, India has gathered all the dangerous signals, and the only advantage is the demographic dividend and everyone's expectations. But can this really be realized? Moreover, will the United States really allow a second China to appear now?

India will decline for 20 years.

It is easier to know than to do. The more difficult the road, the wider it will become. India does not have the fate of developed countries, but it has the diseases of developed countries. Instead of developing the industrial economy, it always wants to surpass the United States and China by modifying data. Today's encounter may not be the first time, but it will not be the last time.Today, it is widely acknowledged that India's stock market has experienced a significant crash, and at one point, the stock market even surpassed historical highs, with a market capitalization of $4 trillion, which has become the backbone of India's confidence. However, it is important to note that India's GDP is only around $3.7 trillion today. This means that the size of India's stock market is more than double its GDP.

It can be said without exaggeration that India is becoming a financial powerhouse. In contrast, our GDP is around 126 trillion, while the stock market is only around 80 trillion. This comparison shows that China's economy is more grounded in solid industries, while India is focusing on the virtual economy.

We should also recognize that India's most significant advantage today is its demographic dividend. However, the demographic dividend needs to be unleashed, which India is unable to do, and can only continuously improve, but the more it improves, the colder it becomes.

The economy is just taking advantage of the Sino-American competition to develop rapidly, but unexpectedly, it is facing the American sickle. Today, we can see that the United States' debt has already exceeded $34.6 trillion and is still rapidly increasing, and all of these are debts that the United States needs to repay.

Moreover, for the United States, China cannot be harvested, Japan also refuses to be harvested, and in Europe, Germany and France are even thinking about undermining the United States. Now, the only major economy left is India. And India, in order to develop, has not set any barriers to the flow of funds.

Moreover, Adani was harvested by Wall Street once before, and gradually recovered, and now it is coming again. It can only be said that no matter how fast India's leeks grow, they cannot grow faster than the American sickle!

Moreover, we often say that if the foundation is not solid, the earth will shake. And isn't the major crash that India is facing now a proof of this point?

Moreover, the problems India faces are much more than we can imagine, whether it is domestic economic contradictions or issues such as land and systems, they are actually the root causes that limit India's development.

And the most important point is that developing countries must rely on external markets to develop rapidly. We have relied on the markets of Europe and America, gradually developed our manufacturing industry, and cultivated our market. However, India is facing the deglobalization promoted by the United States during the demographic dividend period. This is very unfavorable for India.

And the most fundamental point is that Western Europe and the United States believe that global resources are limited, and China's rise has already taken away Western resources. Will they allow a 1.4 billion population India to rise again? Therefore, now may be the peak of India.