Gold Trading: Oct 15, 2024 - Short-term Crude Oil Glut Predicts Bearish Trend
- 2024-08-24
- News
- 72
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Gold:
Gold has been fluctuating at high levels and has currently reached the 2650 mark. However, breaking through this level will require more time, and it is likely to consolidate in the short term. For short-term traders, it is recommended to wait for a pullback to 2615 before entering a long position. Long-term investors can directly enter a long position.
Dollar:
... Fundamentally, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari stated that a "further moderate reduction" in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate in the coming quarters might be appropriate. He emphasized that the policy path depends on economic, inflation, and labor market data. The US core inflation indicator for September was higher than expected, and labor market data have led investors to withdraw bets on a 50 basis point rate cut. The current interest rate range is between 4.75% and 5%, monetary policy is restrictive, and inflation remains slightly above the target.
Technically, the US dollar index has been rising and has clearly broken through the 103 level. However, recent layoffs of 10% at Boeing and a major strike could potentially reduce the non-farm payroll by 100,000 people next month. Therefore, this is essentially the high point for the US dollar index, and short-term, medium-term, and long-term positions can all be bearish on the US dollar index and bullish on non-US currencies.
Euro to US Dollar:
... Fundamentally, there is about a 90% chance of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates this Thursday. The economic situation in the Eurozone is poor, with business activity contracting, which has increased bets on rate cuts. There is disagreement among economists and policymakers on whether there will be consecutive rate cuts. Although inflation has fallen below the target, service sector inflation remains at 4%, with the main reason being the decline in energy prices. Economic growth is a significant concern; if the rebound does not meet expectations, inflation may fall below the target. Geopolitical risks are reflected in growth, and the Thursday meeting is before the US election. If Trump wins, it could affect the Eurozone economy and rate cuts.
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Technically, the Euro is expected to rise along with the decline of the US dollar index. Overall, the US dollar index is already at its peak, and this could very well be the starting point for the Euro's rise. Short-term traders can consider entering a long position with a light position.US WTI Crude Oil:
Affected by the bearish impact of Israel not attacking Iran's oil facilities, crude oil has plummeted. Against the current backdrop of oversupply in the crude oil market, the price is expected to continue falling. Both short-term and medium-term positions can be entered for short selling.
US Dollar against Japanese Yen:
Fundamentally, Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that recent economic data suggests that subsequent rate cuts are not as urgent as they were at last month's meeting. He stated that if the economic conditions persist, a prudent move towards a neutral interest rate stance could be considered. The latest labor market data shows strong hiring and a decrease in unemployment rates, with inflation data higher than expected. Previously, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in September. Now, Waller believes that the economic foundation is solid, and the degree of economic slowdown may not be as severe as anticipated, thus warranting a more cautious approach to rate cuts.
Technically, due to the strength of the US dollar, coupled with the Bank of Japan's decision to delay interest rate hikes, the Japanese yen has declined. However, the yen has already fallen significantly and is approaching support levels. At this point, it is possible to enter long positions for the yen, and short positions for the US dollar against the yen and the pound against the yen.
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