Overnight, gold fell in the early session to test the support at 2645 and then rallied again, reaching a high of 2666. It is still maintaining a high-level consolidation, so whether it will encounter resistance and fall back or continue to rise after consolidation will be the focus of our short-term attention.

The key data for this week will be released on Thursday. There are not many data points to pay attention to in the first few days, mostly speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Yesterday, Waller and Kashkari both made speeches. Let's see what the Federal Reserve officials said.

Waller stated that the inflation rate has rebounded, and the U.S. economy and labor market are stronger than previously imagined. He called for "greater caution" in future rate cuts.

Kashkari pointed out that interest rates may be "further moderately lowered," and it seems unlikely that the labor market will weaken rapidly soon.

Although the speeches of the two officials were not exactly the same, their core message was the same: rate cuts will continue, but with caution. Over the past few weeks, we have seen decent non-farm data and rebounding inflation data. Currently, the Federal Reserve is most concerned about the job market, followed by inflation. There are several different combinations of these two data points, and we will discuss some of them today.

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The first scenario is that the job market improves and inflation rebounds, so the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts, and the market may even bring up rate hikes again.

The second scenario is that the job market improves, but inflation continues to fall, so the Federal Reserve cautiously cuts rates.

The third scenario is that the job market weakens and inflation continues to fall, so the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and may even cut rates significantly in succession to save the economy.

The fourth scenario is that the job market weakens, but inflation rebounds, so the Federal Reserve cautiously cuts rates.

Combining the officials' speeches, the labor market is stronger than previously imagined, and inflation has also rebounded slightly. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will be more inclined to cautiously cut rates and may even pause rate cuts.Market expectations have similarly undergone adjustments. The FedWatch currently anticipates two rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points. However, in the interest rate market, traders have significantly reduced their expectations for rate cuts this year.

In just over half a month, the Federal Reserve will hold its next interest rate meeting. The room for rate cuts by the Fed this year is very limited, and the market has already priced in most of it. Even if there is a rate cut, the benefit to gold would be extremely limited.

On the chart, there is a slight change. If you say there is a change, indeed there is, but if you say there isn't, it's not much different from last week when we were long. What has changed is the pattern, but the logic for entering the market remains the same.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we made a slight adjustment to last week's 4-hour channel, which was highlighted in yesterday's article. The consolidation pattern of gold's daily chart is expected to change.

Last week, after the decline, gold tested the lower rail of the 4-hour downtrend channel and then moved sideways and consolidated near the lower rail. Subsequently, it broke above the consolidation pattern and approached the upper rail of the channel. Now, after the rise, it is again moving sideways and consolidating near the upper rail.

This situation is almost identical to last week when gold was consolidating near the lower rail. Last week, gold consolidated near the lower rail, broke below the consolidation range, and thus broke below the channel's lower rail, continuing to go short. If it broke above the consolidation range, it would continue to oscillate within the channel and go long. Now, gold is consolidating near the upper rail. If it breaks below the consolidation range, gold will continue to oscillate within the channel, and it would be appropriate to go short. If it breaks above the consolidation range, gold would also break above the channel's upper rail, and it would be fine to continue holding long positions.

Therefore, the focus in the short term is the direction gold takes after consolidating at high levels. Looking at the 4-hour chart, support is at 42 below, and resistance is at 60 above. We just need to wait for gold to make a choice and then follow suit.