Today's A-share market filled the gap in the morning and closed at noon, only to experience a one-sided decline in the afternoon. Market sentiment gradually returned to rationality, but many people are still looking forward to the A-share market resuming its upward trend tomorrow. Will tomorrow's A-share market meet the expectations of these bullish investors? I will share a few personal opinions for everyone's reference.

Firstly, the biggest issue with the A-share market now is the heavy trapped positions above. The funds that flooded in after the National Day holiday were basically all trapped, with an estimated amount of nearly 10 trillion yuan, which is a very huge pressure. Coupled with the fact that last week, the main A-share funds fled by nearly 60 billion yuan, the short-term A-share main force is unwilling to liberate these funds. The main force simply does not have the ability to untrap these 10 trillion yuan of funds; they can only release the trapped positions by suppressing or consolidating, allowing new retail investors to take over the trapped positions.

The most important point here is that the main force, singing the "Ode to Joy" on a large scale, has fled, and they will not return to the market in the short term. It can only be left to the retail investors within the market to digest. If the funds trapped on October 8th are unwilling to cut their losses and leave, the period of A-share market fluctuations will be extended. If the承接盘 is unwilling to enter the market, then the A-share market can only solve this problem by falling.

With the ladder-like shrinkage of A-share market turnover, it indicates that both bulls and bears have entered a cautious defensive state. To a certain extent, the momentum of the bears has begun to gather for a counterattack, which has put tremendous pressure on the current trend of the A-share market. The biggest problem now is that in order to achieve this major rebound, the bullish main force has indeed exerted all its efforts. It is already very difficult to form another group, as many main forces have made profits, and the willingness to form a group at this time has been greatly reduced. The remaining scraps depend on the cleaning ability of retail investors.

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Secondly, at this time, everyone must pay close attention to the order of the A-share main force funds fleeing this time, which has been staged after last year's Spring Festival:

Firstly, the "Ning Portfolio" and "Mao Index" of Northbound funds were the first to flee. As long as it is under the banner of foreign capital buying crazily, the first to flee is the Northbound funds of these varieties, which also include some high-priced pharmaceutical stocks, food and beverages, etc. Now we cannot see the trading data of Northbound funds, indicating that the impact of this sector on the A-share market is weakening.

Next are the heavy positions of social security and insurance, such as banks, petroleum, coal, etc., because the main force of these individual stocks holds relatively concentrated positions, with a large scale of holdings, and it takes several years to sell out, which many retail investors cannot understand.Next up are some artificial intelligence groups held by institutions and proprietary trading of securities firms. Today's A-share market followed this trend: these varieties were pulled up yesterday, and today they surged and then fell back. Due to the large number of such individual stocks, their rise can sometimes be used to hedge against large index stocks. Today's trend was just like that because the large index stocks needed popularity to sell, and the speculation on these stocks played a positive role in boosting popularity, thereby being able to cover the sale of large index stocks.

Following that, some unpopular sectors began to experience sudden declines, then started a sharp downward trend. This is mainly because after the market makers pulled up the prices, they really couldn't find buyers, and had no choice but to take the lead in sharply falling to attract attention, hoping to find someone to take over.

The trend after the National Day holiday is just a replay of last year's speculation pattern, nothing new, but on a larger scale. Last time, it was mainly the northbound funds doing it themselves, and this time almost all the main forces are performers. We need to pay attention to this sudden violent rise, what is its true purpose? This requires deep thinking, but I have been saying this for a long time.

Third, how will A-shares perform tomorrow? It will fall first and then rise!

Firstly, I analyzed several important factors of A-shares above. What kind of impact will these factors have on the trend of A-shares?

As I clearly stated in yesterday's article: the A-share market will fluctuate within a certain range, which is roughly between 3200-3400 points. Strictly speaking, it fluctuates between 3200-3300 points. After entering above 3300 points, everyone should pay attention to reducing positions on the high side and wait for a pullback.

It is expected that the trend of A-shares this week will be a fluctuating one, to digest the trapped positions above, and the main funds will also sell some goods. The biggest task now is to find someone to take over.

Secondly, pay attention to the support strength of 3200 points in the A-share market tomorrow.

Today, A-shares fell near 3200 points, will it break through the support of this point tomorrow? Enter the process of bottoming out and filling the gap? I personally don't think it will be that fast, because the A-share market has been fluctuating near 3200 points for three trading days, and it has fallen through once during this period, but it quickly recovered, creating an illusion for the market that this point has strong support. Therefore, many stock reviews say that 3200 points have strong support, including me, who also believe that this position has support.But most crucially, how long can this play continue? Can it hold its position tomorrow, or if it can't, where will it find support after breaking? Personally, I believe it will enter the range of 3180-3150 points. If it enters this range, the A-shares will rebound quickly to recover the 3200 points, because to offload, one needs to manipulate the market. Only by manipulating the market can one attract buyers who will take the bait, creating the illusion that the price cannot fall further.

Thirdly, looking at the short-term trend of A-shares, there will still be a drop in the morning tomorrow, and it will be pulled up in the afternoon. Judging from today's late-stage trend of A-shares, the main funds are eager to exit, and there is no intention to make a sneak attack at the end of the day. The 60-minute KDJ indicator of the market only showed a death cross downward this afternoon, indicating that there will still be a decline in the morning tomorrow. The market will test the support at 3200 points and fluctuate around this level, continuing to lure more buyers at lower levels.

Fourthly, the trading volume of A-shares has shrunk, the securities sector has undergone a significant adjustment, there is no one to follow up the leading sectors, and when banks and oil stocks rise, it will trigger a general decline in A-shares. These factors all determine that the adjustment of A-shares will continue. Even if one is bullish on the future market, one needs to be rational in the near term and should not easily try to bottom-fish.